Table Game Switchers Lose 22% More When the Lobby Sorts by Popular

Players who move between table games during a session lose 22% more per hour when a casino lobby defaults to a "Popular" sort than when it defaults to "Highest RTP," according to a six-month behavioral study of 41,700 U.S. blackjack, roulette, and baccarat players published in March 2025 by the gambling analytics firm Bethel Metrics. The gap held across bankroll sizes and was widest among players betting $5 to $25 a hand — the segment least likely to read a paytable before sitting down. The finding lands as several U.S. operators quietly test algorithmic lobby ordering, a feature most state regulators have not yet addressed in their technical standards.

What the sort order actually changes

The study tracked two cohorts of comparable players, matched on session length, average bet, and deposit history. One group saw a lobby sorted by a popularity score derived from real-money handle over the prior 14 days. The other saw games ranked by theoretical return to player.

The popularity-sorted group switched games 3.1 times per session on average, versus 1.4 for the RTP-sorted group. Each switch carried a cost. Table games in the study ranged from 94.7% RTP on some side-bet-heavy blackjack variants to 99.5% on full-pay video poker and 98.6% on standard baccarat. Popularity sorting pushed players toward the middle of that range and, more importantly, toward games with high hit frequency and low top-end returns — the titles that generate the most handle per seat.

The 22% figure is a loss-rate comparison, not a win-rate one. Both groups lost money. The popularity group simply lost it faster.

Why switchers are the exposed group

The paytable gap

A player who stays on one game learns its paytable. A switcher re-evaluates every few minutes, usually from a thumbnail and a theme. In the study, 68% of switchers never opened the in-game rules panel before placing a bet, compared with 44% of non-switchers.

Bonus terms compound it

Most table-game play contributes 10% or less toward wagering requirements, and some operators exclude it entirely. A player bouncing between tables while clearing a bonus can burn hours of play without moving the requirement — a problem that has nothing to do with RTP and everything to do with where the lobby sends them.

The regulatory blind spot

New Jersey's Division of Gaming Enforcement requires operators to display RTP for slot titles but has no rule on table-game lobby ordering. Pennsylvania's Gaming Control Board published technical guidance in 2023 covering game fairness testing, not interface design. Michigan, which has been the most active state on iGaming consumer protection, has focused on advertising and self-exclusion tools.

That leaves sorting logic in the same category as slot placement on a casino floor — a commercial decision, largely unexamined. Land-based regulators have historically treated floor layout as out of scope too, which is part of why the comparison is uncomfortable for operators.

What the study doesn't settle

Bethel Metrics measured loss rates, not player intent. A player who switches games may simply be bored, and boredom has a cost that no sort order created. The study also can't isolate whether popularity sorting caused the switching or merely reflected a preference the algorithm detected first — a selection problem the authors acknowledge but don't resolve.

What it does establish is that the default matters. Most players never change it. If a single dropdown menu moves hourly losses by more than a fifth, the question for state regulators is no longer whether lobby design is a consumer protection issue, but why they've spent a decade treating it as a design detail.