Push Notification Opt-Ins Fall 28% After the Second Deposit

Push notification opt-in rates at US-facing online casinos drop 28% between the first and second deposit, according to a six-month cohort analysis of 41,300 new depositors shared with [publication] by retention analytics firm BetMetrics. The data, covering January through June 2025 across 14 operators, shows opt-ins falling from 61.4% after the first deposit to 33.2% after the second — a gap that costs operators an estimated $4.10 per player in lifetime value, based on the firm's own attribution model. The finding lands as several states weigh tighter rules on how gambling apps can solicit push permissions, and it complicates the standard retention playbook that treats the second deposit as the natural moment to escalate messaging.

The Second Deposit Is Where Permission Gets Withdrawn

BetMetrics tracked opt-in status at three points: account creation, first deposit, and second deposit. The steepest drop occurred between deposits one and two, not at signup, where opt-in rates held at 58.9%. Players who made a second deposit within 72 hours of their first showed a 39.7% opt-in rate — seven points higher than those who took longer, suggesting the gap is partly about cooling interest rather than notification fatigue alone.

"Operators assume the permission was granted at install and stays granted," said Priya Raghunathan, BetMetrics' head of player research. "What we see is a re-evaluation. The player made a second deposit, watched what the app did with that money, and then decided whether it wanted the app in their lock screen."

What the Dropouts Have in Common

The cohort analysis broke non-opt-ins into three buckets:

• Bonus-chasers (44% of dropouts): players who cleared a welcome offer and showed no further deposit activity within 14 days.
• Limit-setters (31%): players who had engaged a deposit limit or session timer at least once. These users were 2.3 times more likely to decline notifications than players who never touched a responsible gambling tool.
• Silent churners (25%): accounts with a second deposit but no session activity in the following week.

That middle bucket is the uncomfortable one. Players who set limits — the group operators most want to keep engaged responsibly — are also the group most likely to shut off marketing messages entirely.

Why the Timing Matters Now

The data arrives as push notification consent faces new scrutiny. In April 2025, Michigan's gaming regulator issued guidance requiring operators to separate promotional and transactional notification permissions at the OS level, a change that several other state regulators are reportedly studying. Under a split-permission regime, the 28% drop could widen, because players who decline marketing can still receive deposit confirmations and account alerts — meaning the retention channel operators lean on most becomes opt-in twice over.

There is also a compliance angle. Push notifications sent to players who have self-excluded or hit a deposit limit are a recurring source of enforcement actions. A 2024 sweep by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board flagged 11 operators for promotional messages sent to limited accounts. Lower opt-in rates, counterintuitively, may reduce that exposure.

The Question Operators Have Not Answered

The obvious fix is to stop treating push permission as a one-time gate and ask again at a natural moment — after a withdrawal, say, or after a session where the player used a responsible gambling tool. But asking again is itself a marketing action, and the players most likely to say yes may be the ones least likely to respond to what gets sent.

BetMetrics' Raghunathan put the tension plainly: "Every re-prompt is a chance to recover the channel and a chance to lose the player. Nobody has clean data on which way that breaks at scale." Until someone runs that test, the 28% gap stays a number operators know about and mostly work around — by shifting budget to email and SMS, where consent rules are different and the same players may be just as unreachable.